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Vice President Kamala Harris is firmly ahead of Donald Trump among Hispanic voters by thirteen percentage points, according to a new poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos. She still lags behind US President Joe Biden’s margin over Trump in 2020, however — Biden won 65% of the Latino vote compared to 32% for Trump.
The poll shows Hispanic voters favor Harris’ approach on climate change and healthcare compared to Trump’s — by 23 and 18 points respectively — and that they favor each candidate equally on the economy, with each polling at 39% favorability.
The new poll reflects dramatic improvements for Democrats now Harris is the candidate compared to Biden’s polling prior to dropping out the race, which showed his favorability among Latinos had dwindled. Meanwhile, Trump continues to poll more favorably than Harris in certain policy areas, particularly immigration.
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While most US voters still tend to favor Trump over Harris on the economy, Hispanic and Latino Americans represent a key voter constituency for Democrats. The fact Trump is polling equally with Harris on the economy is an improvement over Biden’s performance in other polls conducted before he dropped out the race — but it still represents a win for Trump overall, a Republican strategist told Reuters.
“Hispanics have historically strongly favored the Democratic Party, so for Trump to be breaking even with Harris on the economy has to be seen as a win for him,” Giancarlo Sopo said.
At the same time, pollsters emphasized that because the demographic skews younger than the US population as a whole, it has many first-time voters, which makes them more difficult to predict compared to other groups.
“The Latino vote is probably the most pure swing group of voters in America right now and will be for a long time,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, told Reuters.